Organizers: Ian Sheldon (The Ohio State University), Kari Heerman (Office of U.S. Trade Representative) and Jason Grant (Virginia Tech)
The International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium gratefully acknowledges the continuing support of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the USDA Economic Research Service, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, and the USDA Office of the Chief Economist. We also appreciate additional funding support from the Andersons Program in International Trade at Ohio State University and Virginia Tech.
Theme Day Presentations: “Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis”
Theme Day Organizers: Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University), Jason Grant (Virginia Tech), and Kari Heerman (Office of U.S. Trade Representative)
- Retrospective Discussion of AGE Models
Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota)
Discussant: Munisamy Gopinath (University of Georgia) - Recent Application of AGE Models to Agricultural and Other Trade Settings
Edward Balistreri (Iowa State University)
Discussant: Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Purdue University) - Measuring Trade Elasticities
Michael Waugh (New York University)
Discussant: Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist) - Taking AGE Models to the Data – To request a copy of the slides, please email Missy Sullivan at missy@umn.edu
Yoto Yotov (Drexel University)
Discussant: Nelson Villoria (Kansas State University) - Critical Assessment of Recent AGE Models
Katheryn Russ (University of California Davis)
Discussant: Jeff Reimer (Oregon State University)
Non-Theme Day Paper Presentations
Organizer: Jonathan Coleman, U.S. International Trade Commission
Session 01 Climate Change and Trade
Moderator: Rick Barichello (University of British Columbia)
- Maize Prices, Trade, and Climate Shocks: Do Trade Policies Mitigate the Effects of Climate Shocks on Maize Prices?
Kathy Baylis and Tess Lallemant (University of Illinois) - The Role of International Trade in Climate Change
Angel Aguiar (Purdue University) - On the Impact of Climate Change on Global Agri-Food Trade
Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia), Martina Bozzola (Queens University, Belfast), and Emilia Lamonaca (University of Foggia) - Assessing Options for Addressing the Triple Challenge Facing the Agricultural Sector
Marcel Adenauer and Jonathan Brooks (OECD)
Session 02 Analysis of U.S. – China Trade Tension
Moderator: Sharon Sydow (USDA Office of the Chief Economist)
- The Impact of China’s Tariffs on U.S. Soybeans Taking into Account North-South Production Patterns
Byung Min Soon, Patrick Westhoff, and Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri) - Global and Regional Impacts of Trade Tensions on Global Value Chains
Erwin Corong (Purdue University), Maria Pereira, Maryla Maliszewska (World Bank), and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Purdue University) - Modeling the Potential Impacts of African Swine Fever on Chinese Whey Demand
Lesley Ahmed, Justin Choe, Brad Gehrke, and Samantha Schreiber (U.S. International Trade Commission) - U.S. Agricultural Export Growth in ASEAN Member States: Does FDI Stock Matter?
Kayode Ajewole (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 03 Price Relationships in Agricultural Markets
Moderator: William Powers (U.S. International Trade Commission)
- Anomalous Weather, Prices and the ‘Missing Middle’
Han Lin (University of Exeter, UK), Tim Lloyd (University of Bournemouth, UK), and Steve McCorriston (University of Exeter, UK) - Analyzing Intraday Liquidity Spillovers in Commodity Markets
Thom de Boer (University of Amsterdam), Koos Gardebroek (University of Wageningen), Andres Trujillo-Barrera (University of Idaho), and Joost Pennings (University of Wageningen) - Effects of China’s Trade Policies on U.S. Distillers’ Dried Grains
Lia Nogueira (University of Nebraska), Vanessa De Oliveira (Washington State University), and Kate Brooks (University of Nebraska) - An Examination of the Effects of an Increase in Rail Tariffs on U.S. Grain Exports
Joann Peterson and Justin Choe (U.S. International Trade Commission)
Session 04 Effects of Market and Regional Integration on Trade
Moderator: Dragan Miljkovic (North Dakota State University)
- Intra Industry Trade of Selected Agri-Food Commodities between Canada and the United States: Did NAFTA Make a Difference?
Rakhal Sarker (University of Guelph) - Trading Agricultural Goods Across the African Continent – GLOBIOM Scenario Analysis
Charlotte Janssens, Miet Meartens, Nicole Van Lipzig (KU Leuven, Belgium), Petr Havlik, and Aline Mosnier (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria) - The Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions
Chi Zhang, Ivan Kandilov, and Mark Walker (North Carolina State University)
Session 05 Application of Partial Equilibrium Models to Trade Policy Analysis
Moderator: Lia Nogueira (University of Nebraska)
- Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Canada’s Supply Managed Dairy Industry
Scott Biden, Alan P. Ker (University of Guelph), and Stephen Duff (OMAFRA) - Trade in CRISPR Wheat: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis
Prince Fosu, Thomas Wahl, and Frayne Olson (North Dakota State University) - Year-Round E15: A Disincentive Unto Itself?
Jarrett Whistance, Seth Meyer, Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri), and Deepayan Debnath (University of Illinois) - Modeling the Impact of Trade Shocks on Exports of U.S. Corn, Lentils, and Frozen French Fries
Meagan Martin and Steven LeGrand (U.S. International Trade Commission) - The Effects of Feed Costs and Increased Energy Needs on Broiler Farm Productivity: A Dynamic Programming Approach
Samantha Padilla (USDA Economic Research Service), Sawada Liverpool-Tasie, and Robert Myers (Michigan State University)
Session 06 Current Developments in Trade-Related SPS Issues: Questions Policymakers are Asking and Ways to Answer Them
Organizer: Joanna Bonarriva (U.S. International Trade Commission)
- Current SPS Developments at the WTO and Codex
Julia Doherty (U.S. Trade Representative, Office of Agricultural Affairs) - Global Economic Impacts of Missing and Low Pesticide Maximum Residue Levels
Dylan Carlson (U.S. International Trade Commission) - Estimating the Ad Valorem Equivalent of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Trade MeasuresL Evidence from Specific Trade Concerns
Jason Grant (Virginia Tech)
Session 07 Effects of Policy Intervention on Trade
Moderator: Erwin Corong (Purdue University)
- Some Short-Run Effects of an Import Duty on the U.S. Economy
Paul W. Gallagher (Iowa State University) - Assessing the Poverty and Distributional Impact of Alternative Rice Policies in the Philippines
Caesar Cororaton (Virginia Tech) and Krista Danielle Yu (De La Salle University) - The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates
Jisang Yu, Nelson Villoria, and Nathan Hendricks (Kansas State University) - Innovation and Export Behaviour: A Within-Farms Analysis on French Dairy Farms
Kevin Randy, Chemo Dzukou, Sabine Duvaleix-Treguer, and Karine Latouche (INRA, France)
Session 08 Economic Impacts of the 2018/19 Trade War – A One Year Ex-Post Assessment
Organizers: Jason Grant (Virginia Tech) and Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
Moderator: Rob Johansson (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
Discussant: Lee Ann Jackson (WTO)
- Impacts of the 2018-2019 Trade Dispute on U.S. and Global Agricultural Commodity Trade
Jason Grant, Charlotte Emlinger (Virginia Tech), Robert Johansson, Shawn Arita and Sharon Sydow (USDA Office of Chief Economist) - The Costs to Agriculture from Recent Trade Disputes
Gopinath Munisamy and Jeffrey Dorfman (University of Georgia) - Market Facilitation Payments and the WTO
Joseph Glauber (IFPRI)
Session 09 Domestic and Trade Policy in Agriculture
Moderator: Bernard Cantin (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada)
- Product-Specific, Non-Product-Specific or In-Between: Practices and Consequences under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture
Lars Brink (Independent Advisor) - The Role of Information in Support for Agricultural Trade Policies: A Customized Survey Experiment
Ryan Cardwell and Chad Lawley (University of Manitoba) - Tracking the Evolution of Export Restrictions on Grains and Soybeans: the AMIS Policy Database
Annelies Deuss (OECD, Paris) - Ways to Overcome the Non-Adoption of Voluntary Agricultural GHG Mitigation Measures in Ireland
Lucie Adenäuer, Anne Hayden, and James Breen (University College Dublin)
Session 10 IATRC Commissioned Papers – Results and Findings
Organizer and Moderator: Andrew Muhammad (University of Tennessee)
- The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on the Duration and Hazard Rate of Exporting: Lessons from Agricultural Trade
Jason Grant and Everett Peterson (Virginia Tech) - Trade Effects of SPS Measures in Regional Trade Agreements
Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia) - Taking Stock and Looking Forward on Domestic Support in Agriculture
Lars Brink (Independent Advisor) and David Orden (Virginia Tech) - Global Database on Nominal Rate of Protection in Agriculture: 1955-2017
David LaBorde and Abdullah Mamun (IFPRI)
Session 11 International Trade in Disarray: A Watershed Moment?
Organizer: William Meyers (University of Missouri)
Moderator: Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
Discussant: Seth Meyer (University of Missouri)
- A Review of Tensions Related to China’s WTO Membership
Fred Gale (USDA Economic Research Service) - From NAFTA to USMCA – A Better Deal for the U.S.?
Luis Ribera (Texas A&M University) - Brexit and a Potential UK Trade Agreement – Implications for U.S. Agriculture
Andrew Muhammad (University of Tennessee) - The WTO: Is it Really at Risk?
Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University)
Session 12 GE Model Application to Agricultural Trade and Policy Analysis
Moderator: Ivan Duric (IAMO, Germany)
- GE Analysis of the Effects of Market Facilitation Payments on the U.S. Farm Sector
Lesley Ahmed, Caroline Peters, and Marinos Tsigas (U.S. International Trade Commission) - Canada-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement: Implications for Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector Using Metro Model
Hared Digale (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) - Detailed Representation of the Agricultural Sector in the GTAP-HS Trade Modelling Framework
Maksym Chepeliev, Alla Golub, Thomas Hertel, Wajiha Saeed (Purdue University), and Jayson Beckman (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 13 Machine Learning in Agricultural Trade and Policy Settings
Organizers: Munisamy Gopinath (University of Georgia), Kathy Baylis (University of Illinois), and Thomas Heckelei (University of Bonn)
Moderator: Cynthia Nickerson (USDA Economic Research Service)
Discussant: Mateusz Filipski (University of Georgia)
- Can Machine Learning Help Predict Agricultural Trade Patterns?
Munisamy Gopinath (University of Georgia), Feras Batarseh (Georgetown University), and Jayson Beckman (USDA Economic Research Service) - Predicting Food Security with Machine Learning
Yujun Zhou and Kathy Baylis (University of Illinois) - Using Neural Networks in Agricultural Economics – An Application to Modeling Costs of the Federal Crop Insurance Program
Joe Cooper (USDA Office of Chief Economist) and Andrew Crane-Droesch (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 14 Digital Platforms to Forecast and Facilitate International Markets and Trade
Organizer and Moderator: William Meyers (University of Missouri)
Discussant: Joe Glauber (IFPRI)
- Identifying Areas to Reduce Uncertainty and the WASDE Database
Seth Meyer (University of Missouri) and Joe Glauber (IFPRI) - The Expanding Role of Remote Sensing Technology in Agricultural Production and Trade
Estefania Puricelli and Brian Barker (NASA Harvest, University of Maryland) - Digital Platforms Along the Grain Value Chain of the Black Sea Region
Ivan Duric and Taras Gagalyuk (IAMO, Germany)
Session 15 Effects of Non-Tariff Measures on Trade
Moderator: Karine Latouche (INRA, France)
- Importance of Technical Barriers to Agri-Food Trade: Evidence from TBT Specific Trade Concerns Raised at the WTO
David Orden, Khadija Rouchd, and Caesar Cororaton (Virginia Tech) - VIP Pass to Markets: What Customs Certification Tell Us About NTB’s Restrictiveness
Charlotte Emlinger (Virgina Tech) and Jean Foure (CEPII, France) - Almond and Aflatoxin: Investigating the Extent of Impact on California Exports
Mina Hejazi (California State University – Chico) and Jeta Rudi Polloshkab (California Polytechnic State University) - Impact of SPS Regulations on International Trade in Fruits
Daae Choic and Hanho Kim (Seoul National University)
Session 16 Analysis of Agricultural Consumption and Trade
Moderator: Silvia Miranda (University of Sao Paulo)
- Consumption Pattern and Trade Ties
Anupa Sharma (North Dakota State University) - Assessing U.S. Beer Consumption and Health Attitudes
Thomas Wahl (North Dakota State University) and James Seale, Jr. (University of Florida) - China’s Import Demand for Agricultural Products
Robert Feenstra (University of California Davis) and Chang Hong (USDA Economic Research Service) - S. Competition for Southeast Asia Dairy Imports
Christopher Davis and Jerry Cessna (USDA Economic Research Service)