Organizers: Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor (University of Guelph), Annelies Deuss (OECD), Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia and EUI), Sandro Steinbach (North Dakota State University)
The International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium gratefully acknowledges the continuing support of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the USDA Economic Research Service, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA Office of the Chief Economist, and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture through the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative.
Themed Invited Speaker Presentations
- Quantifying the Impact of (Trade) Sanctions
Yoto Yotov (Drexel University) - Firms-Level Effects of Sanctions
Julian Hinz (Bielefeld University and Kiel Institute for the World Economy) - Resilience to Deglobalization
Peter van Bergeijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam) - Summary of the Theme Presentations
Hyeseon Shin (Ohio State University, Raphael Gomes da Silva (University of Nebraska-Lincoln), Valentyn Litvinov (Kyiv School of Economics), Saera Oh (Michigan State University, Anh Phuoc Thien (Cornell University)
Concurrent and Plenary Sessions
Organizer: Jonathan Coleman (U.S. International Trade Commission)
Session 1: Selected Theme Day Papers: Evolving Trade Relationships
Moderator: Sunghun Lim (Louisiana State University)
- Shifting Alliances-Friendshoring in Agricultural Trade
Savin Khadka, Gopinath Munisamy (University of Georgia), and Feras A Batarseh (Virginia Tech) - Structural Transformation in the Era of Trade Protectionism
Anh Nguyen (Cornell University) and Sunghun Lim (Louisiana State University) - Trade and Environmental Outcomes of Environment-Related Technical Measures
Emilia Lamonaca (University of Foggia) and Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia and European University Institute, Italy)
Session 2: Analytical Dimensions of Trade Modeling
Moderator: Aleks Schaefer (Oklahoma State University)
- The Impact of International Demand for Agricultural Products on U.S. Cropland Appreciation
Noe Nava, Stephen Morgan (USDA Economic Research Service), and William Ridley (University of Illinois) - Gravity Trade Model with Firm Heterogeneity and Horizontal FDI
Jeff Luckstead, Stephen Devadoss and Xin Zhao (Washington State University) - Are Commodity Exports a Road to Weaker Institutions? Causal Inference Through a Natural Experiment
Victor Lana, Lorena Costa, and Leonardo Bornacki (University of Vicosa, Brazil) - Assessing Differential Impacts of a Trade Agreement Using a Quantile Regression Approach
Jiyeon Kim and Jisang Yu (Kansas State University)
Session 3: Effects of SPS Measures on Trade
Moderator: Amanda Countryman (Colorado State University)
- Halving the European Farm Uses of Pesticides: Looking for Alternatives
Alexandre Gohin (INRAE) - Modeling Probability of Notifications of Phytosanitary Non-Conformities in Apples and Pears Cargos Imported by Brazil
Eduardo Cassettari Monteferrante, William Fabricio Arboyleya Lopes, and Silvia Helena Galvao de Miranda - Veterinary Drug Maximum Residual Limits and One Health in a Global Context
Elliot Dennis and Akinbode Okunola (University of Sao Paulo) - The Effects of the 2022-2023 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) Outbreak on U.S. Poultry Exports
Samantha Padilla and Quinton Baker (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 4: The WTO and Agriculture: Status and Prospects
Organizers: Steve Neff (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service) and David Orden (Virginia Tech)
Moderator: Steve Neff (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service)
- Challenges Facing the WTO
Robert Koopman (American University; formerly Chief Economist, World Trade Organization) - Agreement on Agriculture
Lars Brink (Independent Advisor) and David Orden (Virginia Tech) - Emerging Environmental Standards
Lee Ann Jackson (OECD)
Session 5: Climate Change and Trade
Moderator: Maksym Chepeliev (Purdue University)
- Agriculture, Trade, Migration, and Climate Change
Hyeseon Shin (Ohio State University) - Direct and Indirect Impact of Growing Season Weather Shocks on Global Agricultural Trade
Yixing Zheng, Jason Grant, and Nicolas Legrand (Virginia Tech) - A Cross-Country Stock-Taking of GHG Emission Footprints in Major Agricultural Crops
Kiseok Shin (Virginia Tech)
Session 6: Role of Transportation in Agricultural Markets
Moderator: Rick Barichello (University of British Columbia)
- “When You Need It Quick, Let Us Ship It Right”: On the Importance of Port Efficiency and Service Quality to Comply with Food Trade Standards in Ghana
Lukas Kornher (University of Bonn), Daniel Sakyi (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology), and Linus Linnaeus Tanner (LILITAN Research and Consultancy and Heriot-Watt University) - Dynamic Analysis of Container Freight Rates and Global Beef Trade
Andrew Muhammad and Md Deluair Hossen (University of Tennessee) - Impacts of Pandemic-Related Shipping Container and Labor Shortages on U.S. Agricultural Trade and Farm Incomes
Bart Kenner, James Kaufman (USDA Economic Research Service), Dylan Russell (Harvard Kennedy School), Constanza Valdez (USDA Economic Research Service), Jake Wagner (Washington State University), Md Deluair Hossen (University of Tennessee), Eric Jessup (Harvard Kennedy School), Andrew Muhammad (University of Tennessee), Mengshan Zhao (Harvard Kennedy School), Adam Gerval, Fengxia Dong, Phillip Jarrell, and Eric Davis (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 7: Bilateral Trade Modeling and Russia-Ukraine War Model Validation Exercises: Reflections and Aspirations
Organizers: Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist), Jason Grant (Virginia Tech), Marcel Adenaeuer (OECD), and Wyatt Thompson (University of Missouri)
Moderator: Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
Panelists: Jason Grant (Virginia Tech), Amanda Countryman (Colorado State University), Marcel Adenaeuer (OECD), and Maros Ivanic (USDA Economic Research Service)
- The War in Ukraine – and Ex-Post Model Validation Exercise
Marcel Adenaeuer (OECD) - Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: How Do Partial Equilibrium Bilateral Trade Projections Compare to Realized Market Outcomes?
Jason Grant, Nicolas Legrand (Virginia Tech), Alla Golub (Purdue University), Shawn Arita, and Sharon Sydow (USDA Office of Chief Economist) - Predicting Trade Patterns Following Trade Shocks in GTAP
Maros Ivanic
Session 8: Effects of Import Restrictions and Trade Remedies on Agriculture
Moderator: Jonathan Coleman (U.S. International Trade Commission)
- Potential Impacts of Duty Drawbacks on U.S. Wine Production and Trade
Tyler Daun and Alissa Tafti (U.S. International Trade Commission) - China’s Antidumping Investigations Against U.S. Feed Products: Lessons from the Trenches
Bryan Lohmar (California Polytechnic State University) - The Bitter Taste of Brazil’s Import Ban on Robusta Coffee
Hanifi Otgun, John Beghin (University of Nebraska-Lincoln) and Fernando Maximiliano (StoneX) - Revisiting the Effects of Trade Remedies on U.S. Agricultural Imports
Sijia Chen (University of Connecticut)
Session 9: Global Value Chains in Agriculture
Moderator: Lia Nogueira (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)
- Global Agricultural Value Chains and Food Prices
Bernhard Dalheimer (Purdue University), Marc Bellemare (University of Minnesota), and Sunghun Lim (Louisiana State University) - Trade Shocks and Resilience of the Global Supply Chain: Chinese Trade Amid COVID-19
Xiting Zhuang (University of Connecticut) and Sandro Steinbach (North Dakota State University) - The Relationship between Firms’ Labour Market Power and Export Activities: Evidence from the French Food Processing Industry
Helena Engemann, Yaghoob Jafari, Thomas Heckelei (University of Bonn), and Karine Latouche (INRAE UMR SMART)
Session 10: Price Analysis in Global Food Markets
Moderator: Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University)
- The Role of Uncertainty and Oil Price Shocks in Brazilian Commodity Exports
Victor Henrique Lana Pinto (University of Sao Paulo) and Kassio Ferreira Mendes (University of Vicosa) - Food Trade Policy and Food Price Volatility
Will Martin, Abdullah Mamun, and Nicholas Minot (IFPRI) - The Interplay of Geopolitics and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Analyzing Policy Implications
Raghav Goyal (Louisiana State University), Edouard Mensah (Pennsylvania State University) and Sandro Steinbach (North Dakota State University) - Analyzing the Dynamics of Food Price Inflation: An Examination of Labour Costs, Supply Chains and Retail Food Price Inflation
Xiaoyu Zhu, Rick Barichello, and James Vercammen (University of British Columbia)
Session 11: Selected Theme Day Papers: Conflict and Retaliation
Moderator: Tim Oelkers (University of Goettingen)
- Multi-Mode Trade Policy Retaliation
Robert M. Feinberg (American University), Kjersti Nes (Joint Research Centre, European Commission), Kara M. Reynolds (American University), and Aleks Schaefer (Oklahoma State University) - Resolving Trade Conflicts: Agricultural Trade and the Lifting of Retaliatory Tariffs
Steven Morgan and Samantha Padilla (USDA Economic Research Service) - The Impact of Economic Sanctions of Food Prices, Evidence from Targeted Countries
Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor (University of Guelph), Lukas Kornher (University of Bonn), and Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia and European University Institute) - Building the Walls of International Trade after War: Can Dispute Resolution Mechanisms (DRMs) Help?
Felix Fosu (Queens University)
Session 12: New Research Developments to Analyze International Food Security
Organizer: John Beghin (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)
Moderator: Felix Baquedano (USDA Economic Research Service)
- Global Grain Supply Response, Production Heterogeneities and Trade Openness Implications for Global Food Security
Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus, Jennifer Kee, Stephen Morgan, Noe J. Nava, and Lila Cardell (USDA Economic Research Service) - Accounting for the Evolution of Sedentarism in Food Security Assessment
Jacob Michels and John Beghin (University of Nebraska-Lincoln) - Political Instability and Undernourishment: Nepal’s Decade-Long Insurgency
Dikshit Poudel and Gopinath Munisamy (University of Georgia) - Can Food-Security Policies in Tunisia Be Better Targeted?
Amine Hedoui and John Beghin (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)
Session 13: Aspects of Environmental Considerations in Agriculture
Moderator: Michelle Marcia Viana Martins (Institute of Applied Economic Research, Brazil)
- Reducing Global Food Loss and Waste Could Improve Air Quality and Lower the Risk of Premature Morality
Alessandro Gatto (Wageningen University) and Maksym Chepeliev (Purdue University) - New Estimates of Food Losses and Waste Along Global Supply Chains Show Increasing Nutritional and Environmental Pressures
Alessandro Gatto (Wageningen University) and Maksym Chepeliev (Purdue University) - Reputation in International Trade: Reflections on the Environmental Image in the Trade Relations
Milena Magalhaes Oliveira and Silvia Helena Galvao de Miranda (University of Sao Paulo) - The Evolutionary Trajectory of EU Trade in Algae for Human Consumption
Carla Zarba, Alessandro Scuderi, Agata Matarazzo, Donatella Privitera, Biagio Pecorino, and Gaetano Chinnici (University of Catania)
Session 14: Contributions of Terry Roe to Growth, Development and Trade Research and Policy
Moderator: Gopinath Munisamy (University of Georgia)
- Riding Horses to School
Carol Roe (Terry’s Spouse) - Contributions to Economic Growth and Development: An Overview
Rodney Smith (University of Minnesota) - Contributions to Agricultural Trade and Policy
Jaya Jha (Davidson College) and Gopinath Munisamy (University of Georgia)
Session 15: The Dual Challenge: Enhancing Agricultural Trade and Environmental Sustainability
Organizers: Annelies Deuss, Clara Frezal, Lee Ann Jackson (OECD), Jason Grant (Virginia Tech), and Shawn Arita (USDA Office of Chief Economist)
Moderator: Lee Ann Jackson (OECD)
- A Stocktaking of Trade-Related Measures Linked to the Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture
Annelies Deuss (OECD) - Current GHG Emission Estimates Across Countries, Products, and Trade Routes
Jason Grant (Virginia Tech) - Carbon Leakage Resulting from Afforestation in the UK
Alla Golub, Uris Baldos (Purdue University), Sabrina Eisenbarth (University of St. Gallen), and Brett Day (University of Exeter) - Supporting Environmental Sustainability: Perspectives from Canada
Bernard Cantin (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) - Supporting Environmental Sustainability: Perspectives from the EU
Lionel Cosnard and Barthelemy Lanos (European Commission) - Supporting Environmental Sustainability: Perspectives from the U.S.
Sharon Sydow (USDA Office of Chief Economist
Session 16: Aspects of Food Security Assessment and Measurement
Moderator: Titus Awokuse (Michigan State University)
- China’s Role in the Global Rice Market and Implications for West Africa’s Food Security
Jessie Lin, Michael Johnson, and Fred Gale (USDA Economic Research Service) - Presentation of the USDA FAS Food Security Dashboard: An Overview
Saquib Ahsan and Keithly Jones (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service) - Presentation of USDA Dashboard: Agricultural Exports by Congressional Districts
Joshua Gonzalez and Keithly Jones (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service) - Geo-Strategic Aspects of Food Trade and Food Security in the Light of Recent Global Economic Tensions – Policy Choices in Country Cases (IATRC Commissioned Paper)
Bettina Rudloff (German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin), Christine Wieck, Kristine Mensah (University of Hohenheim), Niels Sondergaard (University of Brasilia, Brazil), Wusheng Yu (University of Copenhagen), Olayinka Kareem (University of Hohenheim), Josa Me Luis Montesclaros (Nanyang Technological University), and David Orden (Virginia Tech)
Session 17: Analysis of Trade Agreements
Moderator: Andrew Muhammad (University of Tennessee)
- What Matters for Agricultural Trade? Assessing the Role of Trade Deal Provisions using Machine Learning
Stepan Gordeev (University of Connecticut), Jeremy Jelliffe (USDA Economic Research Service), Dongin Kim (University of Connecticut), and Sandro Steinbach (North Dakota State University) - Agri-Food Trade and Cooperation, Measuring Sectoral Effects of the EU-UK Post-Brexit Trade Agreement
Jeremy Jelliffe, Adam Gerval, and William Johnson (USDA Economic Research Service) - How Deep are the Latin American Trade Agreements? An Analysis of the Negotiations of Trade Barriers in the South
Raphael Gomes da Silva, Fernanda Silva (University of Vicosa), and Lia Nogueira (University of Nebraska-Lincoln) - Brexit Referendum’s Trade Impacts at Regional Level: The Case of French and U.K. Regions
Syengelas G. Konstantinos, Angela Cheptea, and Hucket Marilyne (INRAE UMR SMART)
Session 18: Assessing Geo-Political Conflicts on Agricultural Trade
Moderator: Lars Brink (Independent Advisor)
- Agricultural Commodity Market Response to Russia’s Withdrawal from the Grain Deal
Sandro Steinbach and Yasin Yildirim (North Dakota State University) - Analyzing the Impact of Trade Sanctions on Fertilizer Trade Amidst the Russia-Ukraine War: A Dynamic Demand Approach
Andrew Muhammad, Md Deluair Hossen (University of Tennessee), and Sandro Steinbach (North Dakota State University) - Global Economics Effects of War-Induced Agricultural Export Declines from Ukraine (IATRC Commissioned Paper)
Amanda Countryman (Colorado State University), Valentyn Litvinov, Ivan Kolodiazhnyi, Mariia Bogonos, and Oleg Nivievskyi (Kyiv School of Economics, Ukraine) - The Russia-Ukraine War and Wheat Supply Chain in South Africa: A Port-Level Analysis
Saera Oh (Michigan State University) and Sunghun Lim (Louisiana State University)
Session 19: Carbon Border Taxes and Agri-Food Trade, Should We Give a CBAM?
Organizers: Jeremy Jelliffe (USDA Economic Research Service) and Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia and European University Institute, Italy)
Discussant: Edward Ballisteri (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)
- CBAM and Agriculture: Opportunities, Challenges, and Perspectives (IATRC Commissioned Paper)
Jeremy Jelliffe (USDA Economic Research Service) and Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia and European University Institute, Italy) - Trade Policy as Climate Policy: Payoffs and Tradeoffs
Shantayanan Devarajan (Georgetown University), Delfin S. Go (formerly World Bank), Sherman Robinson (International Food Policy Research Institute), and Karen Thierfelder (U.S. Naval Academy) - Vertical Markets, Carbon Border Tax Adjustments, and ‘Dirty’ Inputs
Ian Sheldon (Ohio State University) and Steve McCorriston (University Exeter, UK) - Carbon Border Adjustments: Should Production or Consumption be Taxed?
Will Martin (International Food Policy Research Institute) - Taxing Agriculture: The Tradeoffs between Lowering GHG Emissions and Decreasing Production
Jayson Beckman, Fendxia Dong, and Maros Ivanic (USDA Economic Research Service)
Session 20: Selected Theme Day Papers: Economic Integration and Global Value Chains
Moderator: Jonathan Coleman (U.S. International Trade Commission)
- Unlocking the Trade Facilitation Agreement: Implementation Challenges, GVC Integration, and Implications for Future WTO Negotiations
Sandro Steinbach and Carlos Zurita (North Dakota State University) - Multilateral Economic Integration and Agri-Food Global Value Chains
Dongin Kim (University of Connecticut) and Sandro Steinbach (North Dakota State University) - Regulatory Heterogeneity, Trade, and Global Agricultural Value Chains
Dela-Dem Doe Fiankor (Agroscope, Switzerland), Bernhard Dalheimer (Purdue University), and Gabriele Mack (Agroscope, Switzerland) - Harvesting Trade Opportunities: Staggered DID of Impact and Structural Gravity of Future of EU-UK Agrifood Trade
Oleksandr Shepotylo (Aston University, UK) - Global Value Chains’ Position and Value Capture: Firm Evidence in Agri-Food Industry
Kossi Messanh Agbekponou (INRAE SMART) and Ilaria Fusacchia (Roma Tre University)
Session 21: Trade Model Applications to Policy Analysis
Moderator: Troy Schmitz (Arizona State University)
- Unraveling the Effects of Indonesia’s Oil Palm Export Ban on Global Stock Markets
Tim Oelkers (University of Goettingen) - Export Restrictions by World’s Largest Rice Exporters have Potential to Disrupt Global Market
Ethan Sabala, Kayode Akewole, Jessie Lin, Michael Johnson, and Jayson Beckman (USDA Economic Research Service) - Navigating the Nexus of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock-Commodity Correlations in Brazil
Victor Henrique Lana Pinto and Leonardo Bornacki de Mattos (University of Vicosa, Brazil) - Estimating Costs of Protection for Agricultural Exports to Developing and Emerging Markets
Yunus Emre Karagulle, Jason Grant, Xi He (Virginia Tech), and Charlotte Emlinger (CEPII, France) - The Relative Importance of Global Agricultural Subsidies and Tariffs, Revisited
Erwin Corong (Purdue University)
Session 22: Effects of Non-Tariff Measures on Trade
Moderator: Xue Peng (Kyoto University, Japan)
- TBT Cooperation and Agricultural Flow: Evidence from ASEAN
Xue Peng (Kyoto University, Japan) - Farm to World: How Does Traceability Affect International Trade in Agricultural Products?
Scarlett Quenn Almeida Bispo, Fernanda Aparecida Silva, Michelle Marcia Viana Martins, Marcelo Jose Nonnenberg, and Ruan da Silva Vianna (Institute of Applied Economic Research, Brazil) - Non-Tariff Measures as an Environmental Governance Mechanism for Sustainability Oriented International Trade
Scarlett Queen Almeida Bispo, Frederic Mertens (University of Brasilia), and Michelle Martins (University of Vicosa, Brazil) - Regulatory Divergence in Non-Tariff Measures Across the Global Value Chains
Fabio Santeramo (University of Foggia and European University Institute) and Mahdi Ghodsi (Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)